Russia and its allies are escalating hybrid war against NATO
Most voters in NATO countries seem oblivious to the threat, and many even vote for pro-Putin candidates
On December 12, 2024, the U.S. Helsinki Commission Staff released the report “Spotlight on the Shadow War: Inside Russia’s Attacks on NATO Territory”.
The document highlights the increasing hybrid war that Russia and its allies (which I have called the new Axis of Evil, and which include Iran, North Korea and Belarus) have unleashed against the NATO countries and its allies (such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and non-NATO EU States).
Together with Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, Russia is simultaneously “executing a shadow war on NATO to destabilize, distress, and deter the transatlantic alliance from its staunch support of Ukrainian sovereignty”.
Helsinki Commission staff have mapped nearly 150 hybrid operations executed in NATO territory occurring since the outset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that have been attributed to or suspected of Russia. The identified hybrid operations fall into four categories: critical infrastructure attacks, violence campaigns, weaponized migration, and election interference and information campaigns. “The scale and calculated nature of Russian hybrid threats within NATO borders since 2022 amount to a covert shadow war”.
Even since the release of the report, there have been new instances of attacks:
Rupture of communication and energy cables between Scandinavian and Baltic countries, as well as Germany.
Downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet
Gross interference in the Moldova, Georgia and Rumania elections (successful in the case of Georgia, halted in the case of Rumania).
You could also add Russian interference in favor of Trump in the U.S. elections, that included calling in bomb threats to minority precincts in key swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin).
What is worse, despite this ongoing and growing threat, most voters in liberal democratic countries seem to be unaware or oblivious of the gravity of the attacks, and many even vote for candidates that are pro-Putin.
Elon Musk has weaponized Twitter to attack liberal and center-left candidates and governments, focusing for now on the U.S., Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany and France. His attacks have been amplified by Russian and other foreign-controlled bots and networks.
“Hybrid warfare—a blend of cyberattacks, disinformation, sabotage, covert operations, and other active measures—offers Moscow a low-cost, deniable, and highly disruptive method to challenge the West’s stability and solidarity. These tactics allow Russia to exploit vulnerabilities within open democratic systems while avoiding direct military confrontation with NATO”.
Critical infrastructure attacks
Attacks on critical infrastructure such as hospitals, trains, cables, electricity and water facilities are a means to threaten public safety and undermine trust in essential resources.
Cyberattacks can also have physical ramifications. An alarming trend of GPS signal disruptions originating from Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave has increasingly impacted European aviation. In December 2023 widespread GPS jamming affected flights across Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Germany, Poland and the Baltics.
Russia-affiliated cybercriminals have also infiltrated water facilities in Texas, France and Poland breaching security systems and potentially putting public access to clean drinking water at risk.
Violence campaigns
“Violence campaigns can range from petty vandalism to attempted acts of terrorism. Russia has been accused of recruiting and paying sympathizers from a variety of backgrounds to outsource their destabilization schemes”.
In early 2024, Polish authorities arrested a man recruited and paid thousands of dollars by either Russian or Belarussian operatives to bomb a paint factory in southwestern Poland. Similarly, in June, French authorities arrested a man near Charles de Gaulle international airport on bomb-making charges, disrupting a Russian-orchestrated sabotage plot north of Paris.
In April, German authorities arrested two men surveilling a number of targets for potential bomb plots, including Grafenwöhr Air Base in Germany, a US military base where Ukrainian troops are trained on M1 Abrams tanks.
“In 2023, Italian intelligence services intercepted Kremlin communications offering $15 million to the Wagner Group to assassinate Italian defense minister Guido Crosetto. In July 2024, US and German authorities foiled a plot to assassinate Armin Papperger, a German defense manufacturing executive whose company has led in producing artillery shells for the Ukrainian military”.
One of the most visible and potentially deadly incidents came in July 2024, when a series of packages exploded in Europe. Postmarked from Lithuania, the parcels contained electric massage machines with a highly flammable magnesium-based substance inside. Two exploded in DHL cargo facilities in Britain and Germany, and the third in a Polish courier firm.
Weaponized migration
“A particularly heinous tactic deployed by Russia and Belarus is the weaponization of migrants. In November 2023, Finland closed its border with Russia following a surge of border crossings believed to be instigated by Russia; 900 third-country nationals arrived in Finland without valid documentation that month alone. In the summer of 2024, Poland saw a surge to nearly 400 illegal border crossings a day”.
These border crises are orchestrated to pressure state institutions, drain resources, and fuel anti-migrant rhetoric exploited by far-right parties across Europe and North America.
Election interference and Information campaigns
“Election interference is a hallmark of Russia’s hybrid warfare. Spreading false narratives and funding candidates sympathetic to Moscow are ubiquitous tactics. In March 2024, Czech and Belgian officials uncovered a massive Russian propaganda network spread across Europe attempting to influence European Parliament elections, including efforts to bribe EU lawmakers to promote Kremlin rhetoric”.
Beyond elections, Moscow’s disinformation campaigns aim to fracture NATO unity
Conclusion
The report concludes that “As Russia continues to escalate its war on Ukraine with ballistic missile strikes and North Korean troops, it simultaneously escalates in its shadow war against NATO. These two theaters—the kinetic war in Ukraine and the shadow war against NATO—are deeply interconnected. Failing to fully support Ukraine’s defense only emboldens Russia to continue its hybrid attacks, knowing the West’s response is inconsistent and restrained”.
“Deterring Russia requires a two-pronged approach. First, NATO must take the shadow war seriously, treating these operations as real and present threats to the Alliance’s stability and security. Second, and equally critical, NATO and its member states must take decisive actions to support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression. Restricting aid or failing to meet the urgency of Ukraine’s needs only signals weakness and invites further Russian escalation, both in Ukraine and within NATO’s borders”.
NATO's 32 member states are updating a 2015 strategy on tracking, deterring and countering hybrid warfare; but the response does not keep pace with the urgent and escalating nature of the threat.
According to a January 4th New York Times article, “Officials and experts agree a wide range of measures are needed to deter and protect against hybrid attacks, including more ‘naming and shaming’ of adversaries and imposing legal penalties; improving intelligence and technical systems to monitor threats; and military exercises and other displays of force to demonstrate that even covert aggressions will not go unpunished.”
Source: U.S. Helsinki Commission Staff Report