The new axis of evil

A growing military alliance between Russia, Iran, North Korea and Belarus

By Luis Fierro Carrión (*)

Twitter: @luis_fierro_eco

In January 2002, five months after the September 11 attacks, then-President George W. Bush called the regimes of Iran, Iraq and North Korea the “axis of evil.” He used the term for governments that sponsored terrorism and sought weapons of mass destruction.

Today, the term could be used to describe the alliance between Russia (which invaded Ukraine in February 2022, two years ago), and the regimes that supply it with weapons: Iran, North Korea, Belarus, Syria and Myanmar. In the case of China, it has abstained from voting at the United Nations to condemn Russia, but it sells it bulletproof vests, thermal imaging sensors and drones.

In the United Nations resolution on the issue of February 2023, 141 countries (including Ecuador) voted in favor of condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine; while only seven voted against (apart from Russia, these were Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, Mali, Nicaragua and Syria). Thirty two countries abstained, including China, Iran, Vietnam, Bolivia, Cuba, India and South Africa. Of the 5 original members of the BRICS group, only Brazil voted in favor of the resolution.

Russia first illegally occupied Crimea and part of the Donbas in 2014; and fully invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Ukraine has managed to recover 62% of the territories occupied since 2022 (74,443 km2 of the 119,000 km2 occupied after February 2022).

According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Russia has suffered nearly 400,000 casualties among its troops, and has also lost: 332 aircraft, 325 helicopters, 6,424 tanks, 7,332 drones, 24 warships and a submarine (as of 13 February).

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), as of January 2024, at least 10,287 Ukrainian civilians had died (although the actual number could be much higher). According to the Russian Defense Ministry, Ukrainian troops have suffered 383,000 casualties, including deaths and injuries. According to OHCHR, the war has displaced 10 million Ukrainians from their homes, of whom 6.3 million are refugees abroad.

The International Criminal Court has convicted Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his Commissioner for Children's Rights, Maria Lvova-Belova, as war criminals, for the illegal deportation of children and the illegal transfer of children from Ukraine to Russia.

For its part, Iran has sponsored terrorist groups that have launched attacks in Israel (Hamas), Yemen (Houthis), Lebanon (Hezbollah) and other Middle Eastern countries (Syria, Iraq, Jordan). Recently, missiles launched from Iran have hit Pakistan, Syria and Iraq. The military response by the United States and its allies has been measured, but there is a growing risk of a more direct conflict with Iran. Venezuela threatens Guyana, and China threatens Taiwan.

Ecuador has become a collateral victim of Russia. President Noboa agreed to deliver old Soviet weapons to the United States, in exchange for $200 million in new American weapons to wage the “internal armed conflict” against organized crime groups.

As retaliation for violating agreements signed with the now extinct Soviet Union, Russia “found” phytosanitary violations in the banana exports of 5 companies and exports of carnations. Although Ecuador has voted in favor of condemning Russia for its aggression and war crimes in Ukraine, it has continued to maintain commercial relations with Russia. With this blackmail, exports to allied countries such as those of the European Union, the United States, Canada, etc. must be promoted; and the National Assembly should approve the trade agreements with South Korea and Costa Rica (the trade agreement with China was approved some days ago). A trade agreement with our main partner, the United States, should also be promoted.

(*) Translation of a column to be published in Diario “El Universo” of Ecuador