World War III has already started
Russia, Iran, North Korea and Belarus face a coalition of democratic countries. China tries to remain neutral, but provides Russia with dual-use components.
By Luis Fierro Carrión
Twitter: @luis_fierro_eco
Apologists for Vladimir Putin, Russia's dictator who invaded Ukraine in February 2022, often repeat Russian propaganda claiming that supporting Ukraine by providing it with weapons could lead to "World War III."
If they refer to a nuclear war, it will not happen, since the "mutual destruction" of Russia and the Western powers would be assured (or, at least, the total destruction of Russia).
But seen in another way, a new world war has already begun.
On the one hand, we have the new axis of evil, which I wrote about in February. This includes Russia and the countries that supply it with weapons: Iran, North Korea, Belarus and Syria.
China has tried to maintain a neutral attitude, abstaining from votes at the United Nations to condemn Russia, but selling it bulletproof vests, thermal imaging sensors, drones and other "dual-use" components.
U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken reiterated in China "our serious concern about the PRC providing components that are powering Russia's brutal war of aggression against Ukraine."
"China is the top supplier of machine tools, microelectronics, nitrocellulose, which is critical to making munitions and rocket propellants, and other dual-use items that Moscow is using to ramp up its defense industrial base", Blinken said on April 26th.
The alliance between China and Russia would be consolidated in the event that China launches an attack on Taiwan, pitting it against the US and the democratic coalition.
Venezuela, for its part, in addition to being intimately linked to Russia, has also threatened to invade its neighboring country, Guyana.
Iran has supported several jihadist groups, including the Hamas terror group that launched an attack on Israel on October 7. Iran also supports Hezbollah in Lebanon, a group that also fires missiles and drones at Israel. Iran directly launched 330 missiles and drones at Israel on April 13th. A coalition that included the United States, the United Kingdom, Jordan and Saudi Arabia supported Israel in preventing such missiles and drones from reaching Israel's civilian population, as Iran intended. According to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), nine missiles managed to hit two military bases, including the one in Nevatim.
Iran had previously launched missiles at Pakistan, Syria and Iraq. Iran also supports the Houthis in Yemen, which has launched more than 60 attacks on ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
On the other side, we have the United States, Canada, European NATO member countries, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Israel and other democratic countries, all of which are supporting Ukraine in its resistance to the Russian invasion.
While most developing countries, known as the "Global South," voted to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine; shamefully Brazil, India and South Africa continue to meet with Russia (and now Iran) in the BRICS group. Although this group is supposed to be about trade and economics, it is unfortunate that relations are maintained at that level with Russia and Iran.
Argentina, which under Fernandez had also applied for BRICS membership, backtracked under President Milei, and now has expressed strong support for Ukraine. Colombia, on the other hand, which went so far as to establish a partnership agreement with NATO, now seems to be approaching the "axis of evil" under Petro, and recently broke off relations with Israel.
It is likely that the two coalitions will continue to clash in local conflicts (such as those in Ukraine and Hamas-Israel) and will not reach a direct military conflict. It would be a less "cold" conflict than the Cold War, but without reaching the confrontation levels of the first and second world wars.
Building in Odesa burning after a Russian missile attack.