The Red Wave That Wasn't
By Luis Fierro Carrión (*)
Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_C
Before the US midterm elections on November 8, many polls and pundits said that there would be a "red wave" in favor of the Republican Party candidates (oddly, unlike the rest of the world, in the U.S., the conservative party is identified with red, and the progressive party with blue).
Heavy losses were anticipated in the Senate and the House of Representatives, and in the Governorships of the States; it was thought that the Democratic Party would lose control of Congress, leaving President Biden without parliamentary support. It was also anticipated that a large number of Latino voters would defect from the Democratic Party.
A few analysts contradicted this message. Most notably perhaps Simon Rosenberg (https://twitter.com/SimonWDC), President of NDN, a progressive think-tank in Washington D.C. He said he saw no evidence of a so-called "red wave" in nonpartisan polling, voter enthusiasm, financial donations to parties, and, perhaps most importantly, in early voting. According to his data, before November 8, more than 45 million people had already voted, and among them the Democrats had an advantage of 11% (5 million votes). The lead was particularly high in the so-called "swing" or purple states, those states that do not have a significant majority for either party.
As I write these lines, the Democrats have already achieved a majority in the Senate (50 Senators plus the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris), with the narrow victory of Mark Kelly in Arizona and Catherine Cortez-Masto in Nevada. There will be a runoff on December 6 in Georgia between Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and Republican candidate Herschel Walker. In the first round, Warnock obtained 49.4% compared to Walker's 48.5%, but the electoral norms in Georgia require a ballot in the event that no one obtains 50%. Warnock is likely to prevail, given that he just needs an additional 0.6 %, in which case the Democrats will have won one net seat.
In the House of Representatives, the current projection is 221 Republicans vs. 214 Democrats, but the margin favoring the Republicans in some districts is very low, and could be reversed (one of these districts, surprisingly, is that of the extremist Lauren Boebert, which was supposed to be a safe seat for the Republicans). In any case, some 8 seats will be flipped in net terms, much less than the average of 28 that is usually reversed in the first midterm election.
As for the Governors, the Democrats will have flipped three states (Massachusetts, Maryland and Arizona), while the Republicans only one (Nevada), with a net gain of 2 for the Democrats.
In the state legislatures, the Democrats have won several, and lost none, something that had not happened since 1934. They also managed to win full control (Governor and two chambers) in three additional states: Arizona, Michigan and Minnesota.
All in all, except for the loss in the House of Representatives, it was a good night for the Democrats.
Analysts attribute this result to three Ds. On the one hand, the Supreme Court decision in the Dobbs case, which eliminated the national right to abortion; this boosted voting in several states, and five state referendums on the issue were also approved. The second D refers to Donald Trump. He supported extremist candidates in various states (for example, for the Senate in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada; and for the governorship in Pennsylvania, whose candidate lost by 15%). The third D is for "Denialists", that is, those who denied the validity of the 2020 presidential elections, and also questioned the integrity of the elections in general. The Republican candidates for Secretary of State (official in charge of organizing the elections) in the swing states lost (Arizona, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico; in Pennsylvania the SoS is appointed by the Governor). These positions are important because they will participate in the certification of presidential electors in 2024.
One last prediction by some analysts that was totally wrong was that Latinos would move significantly toward the Republicans. In reality, the percentage of Hispanics who voted Democratic remained close to historical levels (64%), down 5% from 2020. But most of this drop is due to Florida, where voters of Cuban, Venezuelan and Nicaraguan origin believed the false attacks that the Democrats (a party of the center, or even center-right in the European or Latin American context) were somehow socialist. Only voters of Cuban or South American descent in Florida voted in majority for the Republicans.
(*) Translation of the column published in Diario “El Universo” of Ecuador on November 18, 2022
https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/la-ola-republicana-que-no-fue-nota/
El Gobernador electo de Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro; el ex-Presidente Barack Obama; el Presidente Joe Biden; y el Senador electo por Pennsylvania, John Fetterman.
With Senator Warnock's win in the runoff race in Georgia, the Democrats have increased their Senate majority (to 51), thus confirming there was no "red wave".