The Harris-Trump debate
According to polls, pundits, focus groups and the market, Kamala Harris won the debate
By Luis Fierro Carrión
Twitter: @luis_fierro_eco
The presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump took place on September 10th. It was perhaps the most consequential debate since 1980.
According to scientific polls conducted after the debate, Kamala Harris won the debate overwhelmingly (for example, a CNN-SSRS poll indicated that 63% of those who watched the debate considered Harris to win, vs. 37% for Trump). That was the same conclusion reached by most political analysts, including some who tend to favor Republicans, such as Brit Hume, Bret Baier and Martha McCallum from Fox News. Some focus groups of undecided voters stated that Kamala Harris performed better (in one case, by 23-2). The Polymarket prediction market moved 6 points in favor of Harris after the debate; shares of Trump's company (Truth Social) fell 13% the next morning.
Overall, Harris was very effective in laying out the points of her campaign proposals, including tax cuts for families with children and low-income workers, a first-time home buyers subsidy, and the defense of social security and public health programs. She also successfully baited Trump on several issues, such as the size of his rallies, the fact that he lost by more than 7 million votes in 2020, the violence exercised by his supporters on January 6, 2021, and that he received $400 million as a gift from his father and despite this had six bankruptcies. She also referred to the 91 criminal charges Trump faces, of which he has already been convicted of 34 felonies; and the fact that he was found responsible for sexual assault and business fraud.
Trump looked very diminished, confused, incoherent, and, as always, he dedicated himself to spreading lies and falsehoods. According to a Washington Post review, Trump said about 45 falsehoods in the debate. Some of the most serious:
- He repeated a falsehood that Haitian immigrants are eating dogs and cats in Springfield, Ohio; the municipal authorities have denied this. One Springfield businessman rather noted that Haitian workers in his company (who are not undocumented) are some of the hardest working and most productive employees.
- He repeated a falsehood that a governor (first of West Virginia, then of Virginia) said that children already born could be executed.
- He repeated the falsehood that tariffs on imported products (which he is going to raise) are paid by the countries that export them. In reality, it is paid by importers, and they pass on all or most of the additional cost to consumers. According to Kamala Harris, Trump's proposed tariff increase would cost a middle-income family about $4,000 a year.
- He falsely said that inflation in recent years has been the highest in history; it was much higher in the eighties. In addition, the inflation rate has dropped to 2.5% in August 2024. Real wages (adjusted for inflation) have increased 4% since February 2019.
- He repeated the falsehood that Harris is a Marxist (about which I have already written). Suffice it to say that the wealth (capital) of Americans has increased for all social strata under the Biden-Harris administration, but mainly for the bottom 50% of the income distribution, whose net worth has increased by 123% (or more than 100% adjusted for inflation).
As for Kamala Harris, she correctly cited that "What Goldman Sachs has said is that Donald Trump's plan would make the economy worse. Mine would strengthen the economy. What the Wharton School has said is Donald Trump's plan would actually explode the deficit [by 5.8 trillion]. Sixteen Nobel laureates have described his economic plan as something that would increase inflation and by the middle of next year would invite a recession."
Harris cited military and national security leaders who worked for Trump "have told me you are a disgrace. That is why we understand that we have to have a president who is not consistently weak and wrong on national security including the importance of upholding and respecting in highest regard our military." She also said that these military leaders have said that Trump has contempt for the U.S. Constitution; that Trump is dangerous and unfit; and his former Secretary of Defense said that "the nation, the republic would never survive another Trump term."
Trump did not answer whether he would veto a national abortion ban; nor whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war against Russia.
Harris was able to eloquently present all the points that favor her, such as the right to reproductive health; a tax credit for families with children and for low-income workers; strengthening public health programs, including Obamacare; a tax deduction of $50,000 for new startups; a subsidy of $25,000 to those who buy their first home.
As she herself said, Trump spent most of the time talking about his grievances, lies, his companies and his conspiracy theories; while Harris presented proposals that will benefit the majority of American voters.
