No, Trump cannot run on his “policies”

His real policies, as reflected in Project 2025, are deeply unpopular

Several pundits and Republican elected officials (including Karl Rove and Lindsey Graham) have suggested that Trump stop focusing on his grievances and personal attacks and emphasize instead his policies. Graham, in particular, suggested that “Trump the provocateur, the showman, may not win this election.”

While this last sentence is probably true, the first part is absurd.

Trump has not enunciated any “policies” in between his references to Hannibal Lecter, his relative beauty, sharks and dead birds, beyond far-right white nationalist red meat: detaining and deporting all undocumented immigrants, raising tariffs on imported products, cutting taxes on billionaires and corporations.

Of these, arguably deporting immigrants might be “popular,” but this is only if you ignore the likely effect: a collapse in GDP and an explosion of inflation. In 2016, the Center for American Progress estimated that deporting 7 million undocumented workers would reduce the national income by 2.6 percent, reduce the cumulative GDP over a decade by $4.7 trillion, increase inflation, and reduce the employment of U.S. citizens and residents.

Mass deportation would cost the federal government nearly $900 billion in lost revenue over 10 years; it would also accelerate the insolvency of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds; undocumented immigrants now contribute to these funds, but cannot receive the benefits, so in effect they are currently subsidizing U.S. citizens and residents.

Increasing tariffs on imported products is only popular among economically illiterate people (which seem to include Trump himself), who think it is a tax on the foreign exporter. In fact, in most cases, it operates as a tax on the U.S. importer, who passes on the extra costs to consumers.

Imposing a 10 percent tax on every imported good entering the United States and a 60 percent tax on every imported good from China would be equal to an annual $2,500 to $3,900 tax increase for a family in the middle of the income distribution. This does not even factor in the possibility of (likely) retaliatory tariffs imposed by foreign countries on U.S. exports, which would likely cause a recession and increase unemployment. In 1930, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act contributed to aggravating the Great Depression (world trade fell by 66 %, U.S. GDP fell by 46 %, and unemployment in the U.S. reached 25 % - although this is not solely attributable to the tariff increase).

Reducing taxes on billionaires and corporations should not garner much support among most voters, especially if the tariff increases raise costs by up to $3.900 per year, and the federal deficit and debt continue to increase (recall that Trump increased the national debt by $8.4 trillion in his first administration).

Some would argue that Trump’s real economic policies are not reflected in his stump speech, but rather in the 922 page Project 2025 document developed by the Republican Heritage Foundation, other far-right organizations and former Trump Administration members. However, the policies advocated in this document are even MORE unpopular, to the extent that Trump has attempted to distance himself from the document (even though his running mate, JD Vance, wrote a foreword to a related book).

Some lowlights:

-         Eliminating job protections for thousands of government employees, who could then be replaced by political appointees.

-         The document labels the FBI a "bloated, arrogant, increasingly lawless organization". It calls for drastic overhauls of this and several other federal agencies, as well as the complete elimination of the Department of Education.

-         Dismantling the Department of Homeland Security and combining it with other immigration enforcement units in other agencies, creating a much larger and more powerful entity.

-         The document proposes slashing federal money for research and investment in renewable energy; carbon-reduction goals would be eliminated

-         Slash corporate and income taxes, abolish the Federal Reserve and even consider a return to gold-backed currency.

-         Withdrawing the abortion pill mifepristone from the market and using existing but little-enforced laws to stop the drug being sent through the post.

-         Limit contraceptive access, force states to report miscarriages and abortions to the federal government

-         The document suggests that the department of Health and Human Services should "maintain a biblically based, social science-reinforced definition of marriage and family".

-         Eliminate a long list of terms from all laws and federal regulations, including “climate change”, "sexual orientation", "gender equality", "abortion" and "reproductive rights".

-         End diversity, equity and inclusion programs in schools and government departments

-         Cutting the corporate tax income to 18% and increasing the tax burden on middle-class Americans.

-         End the student loan forgiveness programs

On inflation, the sum total of Trump’s plan has been that he WILL ask his future cabinet members and agency heads to come up with ideas to reduce inflation; which, considering his first cabinet was composed mainly of billionaires who benefit from price-gouging, is like asking the rats to police the cheese.

So, in summary, Trump cannot run on his policies, so we can expect him to continue with his demented rantings.

Trump cannot run on his policies, so will continue with his demented rantings.