Competition to attract immigrants

The real crisis facing developed countries is that they don't have enough immigrants.

By Luis Fierro Carrión (*)

Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_C

While the headlines are full of stories of undocumented immigrants trying to enter the United States or Europe, the real crisis facing developed countries is that they don't have enough immigrants.

This situation became evident during the COVID-19 pandemic, when it is estimated that the entry of immigrants (mainly Latin Americans) to the US fell by close to two million people, which contributed to a labor market in which there are almost two vacancies for every unemployed person, and upward pressure on wages (which, in turn, has led to higher inflation). Another factor was the deaths and chronic diseases derived from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The lack of personnel was especially noticeable in the area of health care (doctors, physician assistants, nurses, laboratory personnel, etc.), which led to the creation of special programs to attract health specialists. But it has also become evident in areas such as information technology, agriculture, restaurants, hotels, construction, child care and elder care, among others.

The problem is even more acute in countries where the population is falling (Japan, Italy, Germany, Portugal, the Baltic countries, Russia, Ukraine, South Korea, etc.). Even the population of China, which has just given way to India for first place among the most populous countries, has begun to decline, and it is estimated that it will drop from 1,425 million now to 771 million in 2100. Japan is estimated to have a deficit of 6.4 million people in its workforce by 2030.

Countries with more sensible immigration policies are beginning to attract immigrants, especially young people with university degrees. Prominent examples of this are Canada, Australia and Germany. In these and other countries, students who receive graduate degrees receive automatic offers of residency and citizenship; while the United States tries to force students who receive fourth level degrees to return to their countries of origin.

The US has also severely limited the number of H1-B visas, dedicated to professionals in areas such as science and technology, to the point that the annual visa quota is normally exhausted in February of each year. Some congressmen have proposed expanding those quotas, and Democrats have proposed ways to legalize the 11.4 million undocumented immigrants in the country (many of whom are underemployed because they do not have work permits).

Despite the restrictions on legal immigration, the US continues to be the country to which most people aspire to emigrate, followed by Canada, Germany and Spain.

The countries with the highest proportion of immigrants tend to be the Arab emirates (United Arab Emirates 88%; Qatar 77%; Kuwait 72%); followed by European microstates (Liechtenstein 67%; Monaco 67%; and Andorra 59%).

In the US, laws were passed to promote the computer industry, green technologies, telecommunications, but the expansion is being limited by the lack of qualified workers. In fact, some companies are going bankrupt because they fail to attract employees.

Another factor will be the rise of “digital nomads”, who will work remotely from anywhere in the world (particularly warmer, low-cost and safe countries) for companies in developed countries.

As the far-right and xenophobic parties continue to attack immigration (Trump offered that he would build a wall on the Mexican border and that the Mexican government would pay for it; neither of these things happened), gradually politicians and the public will understand that the true crisis will be to attract enough skilled immigrants.

Developing countries, such as Ecuador, should make efforts to retain their skilled workers, and implement measures to attract "digital nomads", for which offering good infrastructure (connectivity, health services) and security will be key.

(*) Translated version of my column published in the Ecuadorian newspaper “El Universo” on March 20, 2023:

https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/competir-por-migrantes-nota/

Citizenship naturalization ceremony in the U.S. Photo: National Park Service